To look into the future we must look into the past and understand it. Real estate exists in a different environment today than it did last year. It will exist in a totally different environment tomorrow. Interest rates have played a huge role in rising real estate prices over the past 20 years. There is only one way for them to go from here and it's not down. Let’s look at one neighborhood in Palm Beach County and see what the past 20 years tells us about where we might be heading.
It’s hard to imagine a more middle class neighborhood in Jupiter, Florida than Abacoa. It’s own downtown, a multitude of different neighborhoods, condos, townhomes, single family residences, live work units, spring training, research facilities, a college campus and all sorts of specialty events including concerts. Great location, front porches, awesome schools.
Paradise Sharks keeps a very close eye on prices in Abacoa as it helps us understand where we have been and where we might be going. Back in 2000, when Abacoa was just getting started, the median single family home price was $276,200. Ten years later, after the bubble run-up and subsequent sell off, median prices had settled at $400,000 in 2010. A very nice 45% gain over ten years.
Since 2010, median Abacoa single family home prices have been up in 7 of the last 10 years. Last year, there were fewer Abacoa single family sales through the real estate community than we have seen in 9 years. It’s a sign of a neighborhood settling in. The developer is finished, people love where they live and we will probably start seeing lower turnover as a rule.
Last year, median single family home prices in Abacoa were up a rather impressive 20%. Only once in history have we seen a larger single year gain and that was back in the crazy, height of the bubble days when prices jumped 42.3% in 2005. In the 20 years since 2010 the median single family home price in Abacoa is up by an amazing 83%.
Jupiter has changed so much since 2000 and will continue to evolve as Father Time marches on. It’s hard to envision another solid year of increasing prices after what were saw in 2020 but who knows. If we learned anything from last year it's to not count on anything.
If prices over the next 10 years move the same they did between 2000 and 2010 the median single family home price in Abacoa will sit at $1,061,776 in 2030. If prices move like they did over the past 10 years the median price in a decade will be $1,340,034.
America is at a crossroads with much division. Where we head from here is anyone’s guess. I haven’t a clue where things will be in 10 years but if median prices are going to increase as they have over the past 20 years it will be inflation driving it. Inflation will also have to be driving median incomes skyward. Right now the median income in the United Stares sits at $35,298. In 2000 it was $31,006. That’s an increase of 14% over 20 years. The median single family home price in Abacoa has risen 265% over the same period.
No doubt the influx of wealthy people into the Jupiter area is responsible for much of the discrepancy. Interest rates have played a huge roll. At the start of 2000 the 10-Year Treasury yields opened at 6.6% and last year closed at .7%.
Interest rates can’t go lower, so if home prices are going go continue climbing it will have to be through inflation. Or median incomes moving higher without inflation, That’s going to be a losing game and I for one pray inflation does not rear it’s ugly head too soon.
The real estate market, like the rest of the world, is facing very interesting times. If the value of your home is of importance; if you are looking to buy or sell real estate, seek knowledge. Fully informed decisions are the best decisions. Paradise Sharks has been doing nothing but selling and building real estate for decades and we take great pride in focusing our business on education, not high pressure selling. If we can ever be of service in any way you will find us very easy to reach at paradisesharksrealestate@gmail.com or 561.308-0175.
Fins up……..
#futureofrealestate
It’s hard to imagine a more middle class neighborhood in Jupiter, Florida than Abacoa. It’s own downtown, a multitude of different neighborhoods, condos, townhomes, single family residences, live work units, spring training, research facilities, a college campus and all sorts of specialty events including concerts. Great location, front porches, awesome schools.
Paradise Sharks keeps a very close eye on prices in Abacoa as it helps us understand where we have been and where we might be going. Back in 2000, when Abacoa was just getting started, the median single family home price was $276,200. Ten years later, after the bubble run-up and subsequent sell off, median prices had settled at $400,000 in 2010. A very nice 45% gain over ten years.
Since 2010, median Abacoa single family home prices have been up in 7 of the last 10 years. Last year, there were fewer Abacoa single family sales through the real estate community than we have seen in 9 years. It’s a sign of a neighborhood settling in. The developer is finished, people love where they live and we will probably start seeing lower turnover as a rule.
Last year, median single family home prices in Abacoa were up a rather impressive 20%. Only once in history have we seen a larger single year gain and that was back in the crazy, height of the bubble days when prices jumped 42.3% in 2005. In the 20 years since 2010 the median single family home price in Abacoa is up by an amazing 83%.
Jupiter has changed so much since 2000 and will continue to evolve as Father Time marches on. It’s hard to envision another solid year of increasing prices after what were saw in 2020 but who knows. If we learned anything from last year it's to not count on anything.
If prices over the next 10 years move the same they did between 2000 and 2010 the median single family home price in Abacoa will sit at $1,061,776 in 2030. If prices move like they did over the past 10 years the median price in a decade will be $1,340,034.
America is at a crossroads with much division. Where we head from here is anyone’s guess. I haven’t a clue where things will be in 10 years but if median prices are going to increase as they have over the past 20 years it will be inflation driving it. Inflation will also have to be driving median incomes skyward. Right now the median income in the United Stares sits at $35,298. In 2000 it was $31,006. That’s an increase of 14% over 20 years. The median single family home price in Abacoa has risen 265% over the same period.
No doubt the influx of wealthy people into the Jupiter area is responsible for much of the discrepancy. Interest rates have played a huge roll. At the start of 2000 the 10-Year Treasury yields opened at 6.6% and last year closed at .7%.
Interest rates can’t go lower, so if home prices are going go continue climbing it will have to be through inflation. Or median incomes moving higher without inflation, That’s going to be a losing game and I for one pray inflation does not rear it’s ugly head too soon.
The real estate market, like the rest of the world, is facing very interesting times. If the value of your home is of importance; if you are looking to buy or sell real estate, seek knowledge. Fully informed decisions are the best decisions. Paradise Sharks has been doing nothing but selling and building real estate for decades and we take great pride in focusing our business on education, not high pressure selling. If we can ever be of service in any way you will find us very easy to reach at paradisesharksrealestate@gmail.com or 561.308-0175.
Fins up……..
#futureofrealestate
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