Let’s get the bad news right on the table. Condominium sales in the Northern Palm Beaches as of January 15th put in the worst monthly performance we have seen in a very long time. Down 25% over the past 30 days. Down 26.5% from the 12 month moving average. Down 14% from year ago numbers. Down, down down.
Lowest monthly sales total in years
Let’s get the bad news right on the table. Condominium sales in the Northern Palm Beaches as of January 15th put in the worst monthly performance we have seen in a very long time. Down 25% over the past 30 days. Down 26.5% from the 12 month moving average. Down 14% from year ago numbers. Down, down down.
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Median sales price down slightly for the 1st time since October
While single family home prices have shown some rather dramatic swings over the past few months, it has been steady as she goes for condominium prices in the Northern Palm Beaches. The median price of a condominium in the Jupiter area was down slightly as of January 15th to $187,000. This is a less than a 2% drop from the $190,000 we had been stuck on since September. Homes under contract in Jupiter remain at the lowest levels we have seen in years A couple weeks ago we told you the Northern Palm Beaches real estate market was acting a bit schizophrenic and that remains the case. Median prices for single family homes in the area were up sharply in December and we expect condominium prices to remain strong when we publish the latest numbers in a week or so. But the number of buyers actually putting a property under contract keeps dropping. Just look at the chart above and you can see that since May the number of homes under contract just keeps getting lower and lower. Over the past 30 days pending home sales in Jupiter and the surrounding communities has dropped another 6.5%. We trail year ago numbers by 5.3% and remain almost 19% behind the 12 month moving average. About the only hint of good news is over the past 2 weeks things have stabilized with little further declines.
With the streets, beaches, shops and restaurants as crowded as we have ever seen them the fact that buyers cannot find homes to buy is certainly concerning. Will limited inventory slow sales dramatically? Will buyers be willing to pay more and more for homes based on limited supply? Will more sellers enter the market in the coming weeks to help supply product for anxious buyers? We think the answer to each of these questions will be yes. The fact remains that if you are looking to purchase a property in Palm Beach or Martin County you better have a game plan and the ability to make quick decisions. We specialize in putting our clients in position to win and if we can be of any help to you please feel free to contact us. Always interesting, always fun. Fins up..... Tom Priester Principal Broker Paradise Sharks Real Estate 561.308.0175 tom@paradisesharks.com www.paradisesharks.com 3rd straight monthly increase is good news for buyers Those who follow our weekly reports know that single family home prices in Jupiter and the entire Northern Palm Beaches region showed solid gains in December. With weak pending home sales numbers buyers, so far this season, have decided they will need to pay higher prices because of limited supply. To see our 3rd straight monthly increase in home inventory levels around Jupiter is definitely good news but not excellent by any stretch of the imagination. We have come a long ways baby..... As we look forward to another exciting year for real estate here in the Northern Palm Beaches it is time to take a look back and see just how good 2014 was. And it was indeed another very good year. We ended the year with the lowest pending home sales numbers we have seen in years with median single family home prices down over the last half of the year. But we should not let that take the focus off what a fantastic year 2014 was for real estate in the Northern Palm Beaches. Let’s start with the number of single family homes that sold during the year in Jupiter and the neighboring communities because it was a record breaking year. Never have more homes been sold through the real estate community. Ever. Even more amazing is the fact that for 6 straight years we have had more single family home sales than the year before. Sales in 2014 were 1.8% above the prior year and an amazing 75% higher than the year the streak began in 2008. Great stuff. Not only were sales higher for the year but the median price of a single family home moved higher. We are still well below the record prices set way back in 2005 which shows the potential for further increases. But the median price for a Northern Palm Beach home was up again in 2014 by 7%. It was the third straight annual increase and it is nice to see single digit gains instead of the crazy double digit gains we saw year after year between 2000 and 2005. We know what happened after that run up.
December numbers come in strong Up until yesterday there was little good news to shout about when it came to the real estate market in the Northern Palm Beaches. Sure condo sales, and prices, had done better than single family homes, but 2014 was kind of a ho-hum year. With 2015 here there seems to be a bit of change in the air. Single family home prices jump 5% and now we get a strong December showing for home sales in Jupiter and the Northern Palm Beaches. During December we saw almost a 19% jump for home sales in Jupiter and the neighboring communities. We were almost 7% higher than year ago numbers. Another nice boost in the arm to go with yesterdays home price news. The snowbirds are here and that is a good thing. The spring buying season will soon be here and that is more good news. But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves as there still are obstacles on the road to full recovery. Pending homes sales were weak, very weak. Home sales will continue to be sputter until that changes so watch for a drop next month. Prices were up last month as buyers realized they had to pay more if they wanted “the” house as inventory numbers continue to lag. What will they do next month? Will they continue to push prices higher?
Many questions and no doubt many buyers are still concerned about the overall economy. Next year is an election year and it won’t be long before we are bombarded with negative ads and talk of the “fiscal cliff” that we haven’t heard since last election. Our national debt has now moved over the 18 trillion dollar mark which comes out to about $155,000 per taxpayer. Not exactly a laughing matter. Interest rates this morning are at a brand new 18 month low at 3.91%. Great for borrowers but a sign that the economy isn’t exactly booming. Many questions. But today we enjoy an 19% jump in single family home sales in Jupiter during December but keep a close eye on what is happening tomorrow. It is another week before we dig into pending home sales and inventory but as of today neither is painting a very pretty picture. Maybe tomorrow. Always interesting, always fun. Fins up..... Tom Priester Principal Broker Paradise Sharks Real Estate 561.308.0175 tom@paradisesharks.com www.paradisesharks.com Largest 30 day upward move in 21 months Let’s face it, the weather here in south Florida has been amazing so far this winter. If we have anything to complain about it has maybe been too warm. The snowbird crowds have been intense with more people in town that we have ever seen before. But so far there had been no news to show they were making a significant impact on the real estate market. Paradise Sharks market update on January 1st showed both inventory and pending home sales falling. Neither was good news. Jupiter home inventory drops for the 1st time since October We keep looking for some good news when it comes to real estate in the Northern Palm Beaches. Sales have hardly been robust, median single family home prices are down about 9% since July and the streets, restaurants, beaches and bars around Jupiter have never been this busy. We start this year with a brand new record low for pending home sales. One bright spot was home inventory levels in Jupiter and the surrounding communities that had been on the rise for two straight months. More selection to entice buyers has to be a good thing. We hoped the trend would continue as sellers try to take advantage of our winter visitors and a traditionally busy spring buying season. We still think inventory levels will climb over the next few months but not this month. As of January 1st, Jupiter area home inventory levels dropped about 1.5% from where we stood a month ago. Nothing major but buyers have fewer choices than they did a month ago. In fact, they have fewer choices than they have had in a year with the exception of September and October.
So where do we go from here? We expect decent single family home sales in December although it is still a week or so too soon to tally final numbers. Median prices in the single family home market have fallen so fast, so quickly we see them stabilizing and even moving higher. For now. The condo market has been much stronger and we expect that to continue. The best new opportunities of well priced properties in good condition are still getting snapped up in most price categories. There just aren’t enough of them and this month’s drop in Jupiter home inventory doesn’t help. Sales will be slower the next couple months. But what about prices? Will those buying homes be willing to pay more as many sellers still are holding on to prices a bit ahead of the market. Or will they remain stubborn and force sellers to drop their prices if they want a buyer. Will a shortage of properties cause prices to rise. Or will buyers wait until prices pull back before pulling the trigger? We still see prices moving higher through at least April/May but recent data has us wondering. Always interesting, always fun. Fins up..... Tom Priester Principal Broker Paradise Sharks Real Estate 561.308.0175 tom@paradisesharks.com www.paradisesharks.com Seasonal visitors have not yet provided boost to the local real estate market We told you this season was going to be big. Really big. If you have tried to find parking at the beach, a table at your favorite restaurant or anything at Jupiter’s new Harborside Place you know exactly what I mean. Things are booming and as a good friend said the other day If you are in the restaurant business and aren’t raking in the dough this week then something is wrong. |
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