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Jupiter condo prices pull back for 3rd straight month

7/24/2020

Let’s face it, the real estate market has been flying high in the Northern Palm Beaches. Condo sales are up for the 3rd straight month. Over the last month, they are up over 26%. Compared to year ago numbers, they are higher. But condo prices don't seem to be benefitting from the good times…..

Median condo prices in Jupiter, and the neighboring communities, are down as of July 15th. Down for the 4th straight month. Down to the lowest prices we have seen so far this year. The drops however have not been significant. On April 15th, the median priced condo sat at $252,000. Today it sits at $245,000. Not dramatic but still, median condo prices are down.

Interest rates keep dropping. Sales are up, but condo prices are trending lower. Why? After all, median single family home prices in the area have been performing much better. In fact, today median single family prices sit at record all time highs. Median condo price are still down 12.5% from the record highs last hit way back in 2006. Median single family home prices are 14% higher than 2006 prices.

There has been a huge disconnect in where Jupiter condo prices have been going when compared to their more expensive single family home cousins. Why? The answer is actually pretty straight forward. Taxes.

The local real estate market has been carried for the past few years by properties that sell for over a million dollars. The reason is taxes. Well heeled individuals have been moving to Florida in large numbers. They are running to a state with no income tax, from states with significant income taxes that kept rising. When the Trump administration pushed for a a tax cut, part of that reform was not allowing taxes over $10,000 from being deductible on your federal income taxes. It was now a double tax whammy to live in places like New York and New Jersey. To Florida they have been running. To save money and lots of it.

Wealthy people, relocating to Florida, generally are not buying condos. So far this year, 19.4% of single family homes sales in the Northern Palm Beaches have sold for over a million dollars. In the condo market, that percentage is 4.9%. The percentage of single family home sales over the million dollar threshold that have closed in the Jupiter area during the Trump years is up about 54%. Part of it is taxes, part of it is a strong economy. Demand for higher priced single family homes is surging and it is pulling median prices along for the ride. Condos have not enjoyed the same ride. It’s as simple as that.

There remains a real disconnect from what is happening with the overall economy and the strength we are seeing, not only in the real estate market, but the stock market. There is most likely another stimulus bill coming out of Washington very soon. The Democrats version that the House passed weeks ago, contained a trillion dollar bail out of states and local governments who are in deep financial trouble. So far, the Republicans have said no way, but time will tell.

The election coming our way is going to be critical to Florida real estate. If Joe Biden is elected, he has made it clear he will end most of the tax cuts enacted by President Trump. If he opts to once again allow state taxes to be deducted from federal returns it could cause a flow of well heeled residents headed out of the state. It could put a big damper on Florida real estate. Especially at the top end.

There is so much going on right now. The virus, the economy, the election. It’s enough to make your head spin. For now. the real estate market is booming. Come November, it may be a different story, so pay attention. If you have any concerns, any questions and Paradise Sharks can be of help in any way just let us know. You can call us at 561.308.0175. You can email us at tom@paradisesharks.com. We promise you straight answers, world class customer service, and our decades of experience will help you make informed decisions. The fact we have kicked the middleman out of the real estate transaction means we will save you money. Lot's of money. It's just what we do.

Stay safe and keep those fins up……

#jupitercondoprices

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Jupiter Real Estate on Cloud 9

7/16/2020

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Cloud 9 is a happy place. You can look it up and find many different descriptions. Happy, floating on air, natural high, unnatural high, level where you cannot get any higher, state of euphoria. The list can go and on, but you get the picture. The real estate market in the Northern Palm Beaches is at levels we have never seen before. Not during the pre-bubble years, not ever. It took a Chinese virus to get Jupiter real estate selling like it has never sold before. Especially the real expensive stuff. This homes that sell for more than a million dollars. Those are like on Cloud 25. They are really euphoric.

I am a big fan of Warren Buffet. Lately, he has been getting a lot of negative press that he has lost his touch. Warren’s Berkshire Hathaway has always been the world’s best mutual fund. At least in my lifetime it has been. One share of his stock, at the high, sold for almost $350,000. You know what Warren’s mantra has been through the years? Buy when everybody is selling and sell when everyone is buying.

Should you be selling? Not if you are happy and do not care what the value of your home is. But even then you want to know what is going on. It’s actually crazy. Cloud 9 crazy.

Let’s start with those million dollar home sales. In June, closings of homes that sold for over a million dollars in the Northern Palm Beaches set a new all time record for the month. They blew away the old record by 22%. In July, they are currently ahead of the old record by 27%. Those numbers are tame when compared to million dollar homes that are under contract but have not yet sold. Today, those pending million dollar sales numbers are 110% ahead of last years all time record on this date. Cloud 25 crazy. Euphoric. Indeed.

In the overall Northern Palm Beaches things aren’t Cloud 25 crazy but they are Cloud 9 crazy. Pending home sales for all prices ranges, as of July 15th, are up 3.6% over the past two weeks. Over the past month they are up 13%. Compared to last years numbers they are up 24%. The number of homes under contract today are higher than they have been at anytime in well over 3 years. And they are climbing. Everybody is buying. Cloud 9 crazy. Should you be selling?

What makes the fact that sales are soaring to euphoric levels even more amazing is inventory. The homes that buyers have to select from. Pure and simple, the choices for today’s buyer suck. Really bad. As of today, inventory has dropped 4.6% over the past two weeks. It has dropped 11.1% over the past 30 days. Existing home inventory is down and astounding 16.1% over year ago levels. This morning there are fewer homes on the market since Paradise Sharks has kept records and that is a long, long, long time. George W. Bush was President.

Inventory sucks, sales are soaring, especially million dollar sales. Interest rates are at historic lows. Three weeks ago, interest rates knocked out an all time record low from way back in 2006. Over the past 3 weeks they have dropped another 6.3%. Interest rates at record lows, sales at record highs, inventory at record lows. Median home prices should be soaring, but they aren’t. Might they in the days ahead? Perhaps, and that is a subject we will look closely at in next week's Paradise Sharks market update, so stay tuned to this channel.

Paradise Sharks is spending time on the road this summer looking for a potential second office location. Away from those crazy Florida summer temperatures and humidity. I am writing this article in the North Carolina mountains and the temperature is 66 degrees. We are seeing a lot of downtowns, we are eating at a lot of restaurants, we are talking to a lot of people, we are walking a lot of streets. The economy is in real trouble. Not the real estate economy. Now the stock market economy. The real life economy. Small businesses all over the place are on life support, as are many of their employees. Everybody is waiting to see the next “stimulus” package from Uncle Sam and who is going to get the trillions of dollars our country does not have. Our national debt is about to hit $27 trillion with unfunded liabilities over $153 trillion. The Fed is injecting $12 trillion dollars to keep the economy from collapsing. The Chinese virus is raging, There is hatred everywhere you look. The world has gone bananas. But Jupiter real estate is on Cloud 9. Everybody is buying. What would Warren Buffet do?

I am not telling you the “high” in real estate is in. But, I am going to tell you, that if you are even thinking about selling your home, now might be an excellent time to get informed and make an educated decision. The timing may end up being perfect, or close to it. Sales are booming, Inventory is at record lows, Prices may have a final push, but maybe not.

Always interview different brokers before doing anything real estate. Sure, Paradise Sharks is selling homes at record prices, sure we are selling homes fast with few headaches to our clients. Sure, there are few homes we cannot list for a maximum commission of 4% and many we can list for no more than 3.5%. Sure, we have kicked the middleman out of the real estate transaction and pass those savings back to our clients where they belong. Sure, Paradise Sharks would love to team with you, but still sit down with others and ask questions. Lots of them. If you would like to ask us questions, we would LOVE to answer them. Ask away at 561.308.0175 or tom@paradisesharks.com.

You know what the Rolling Stones say, “Hey, you, get off of my cloud”. You know what Warren Buffett says, “Sell when everyone is buying”. Real estate is in a state of euphoria. Will it stay there?

Fins up…..

#jupiterrealestate

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Single family Jupiter home prices drop to 4 month lows

7/5/2020

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If you have been paying attention, you know that pending home sales in the Northern Palm Beaches have been going crazy. Not only were they up almost 27% during June, they are almost 20% ahead of year ago numbers, and the highest we have seen in well over 2 years. What pandemic?

Buyers have terrible selection in most price ranges and neighborhoods, and that is why new listings are so highly sought after and selling very, very quickly in many cases. Paradise Sharks can save you tons of money if you are looking to sell, so please feel free to contact us anytime for advice and learn how to save huge money on commissions. Inventory levels are the worst we have seen in well over a decade and not getting better.

The old rules of supply and demand tell us that when sales rise to record levels, and the number of homes for sale drop to record lows, we should see prices moving higher. But we aren’t. Median condo prices in the Jupiter area just dropped to the lowest levels we have seen since last year. Single family Jupiter home prices had been doing better and just 30 days ago set an all time record high. But, during June median single family Jupiter home prices, and those throughout the Northern Palm Beaches, fell 2.8% to $530,000. Last month they were at $545,000. Today's median single family home price is down to the lowest level we have seen since March.

Single family home sales in the Northern Palm Beaches were up an amazing 66% in June over May but remain 22% below year ago numbers. Over the first half of the year, sales of single family homes are down 17.3% compared to 2019. We have seen dramatic drops in sales of homes priced under $500,000. With interest rates at unbelievably historic low numbers the problem is not so much demand, but affordability and poor inventory.

Pending home sales for homes priced above $1 million dollars are off the chart. In fact, they are at all time record highs and just soared past the old record by 23%. Compared to last year's record sales, they are up an astounding 100%. During the first 6 months of 2020 sales at the very top end of the market were down 11.7% but that’s about to change. As these pending sales close, they are going to drag the median home price higher. Especially when there is hardly anything decent for buyers looking under the $500,000 threshold. Today, in that market segment there are a total of 165 active listings. Last year homes in that price range were selling at a clip of about 133 each month and interest rates were far higher.

There is much going on economically, politically and with thi virus. The old rules mean little and the new rules are hard to understand. If you are going to do anything with real estate, seek information and make informed decisions. Paradise Sharks would be honored to sit down with you and review your specific needs. If you are a buyer, we typically will provide you a significant cash rebate at closing as our way of saying thank you. If you are a seller, we will provide you the lowest commissions in the business and they will be geared towards your individual needs. Each house is different. Each marketing strategy is different and we discuss your options and show you exactly what your costs will be. Feel free to reach out to us at 561.308.0175 or tom@paradisesharks.com as we are proud to show you why we are different…..by design.

Fins up……

#jupiterhomeprices

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$1M+ Jupiter home sales set all time record highs

7/2/2020

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Not sure y’all been paying attention, but the world seems to have gone crazy. This afternoon Mary Daly, who is President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said if we could get this virus contained through public measures or a vaccine, the United States economy could recover in just “4 or 5 years”. Maybe she hasn’t heard the news. The Nasdaq just hit an all time high. The Dow Jones is up over 7,500 points since the middle of March. Wow, I for one cannot wait to see what the recovery will look like.

If you have not noticed, these days the Fed has injected trillions of dollars into the world to keep the stock market booming but there seems to be little correlation with what is happening in the economy and what is happening on Wall Street.

There is also little correlation to what is going on with the economy and what is going on in the world of real estate here in the Northern Palm Beaches. You see, in the United States at this moment, there are over 33 million unemployed people. This country’s national debt is closing in on $27 trillion dollars and our unfunded liabilities just crossed over the $153 trillion dollar mark. Almost half the country does not pay income taxes and over the half the country is on some sort of government subsidy. The hate in the streets is at the highest level we have seen in the 277 year history of this country. President Trump is promising another round of stimulus money that has been described by some as “shock and awe”. But Jupiter home sales, well they are off the chart.

As of today, pending home sales in the Northern Palm Beaches just hit multi-year highs. In fact, they have not been higher since May 1, 2018. That was 26 months ago. Don’t they know we are in the middle of a pandemic that many say will last for at least 2 years. Evidently not, as pending Jupiter home sales and those throughout the Northern Palm Beaches, just made their second straight ginormous monthly leap. Up 26.9% in June and 19.9% ahead of year ago levels. And to think the economy may recover in just 4 to 5 years.

You think those numbers are disconnected in an economy where this countries national debt sits at 132% of our Gross Domestic Product. It's the fourth worst debt to GDP ratio in the entire world. If you think the overall market numbers are crazy, then check out the top end of the market. You see, at the top end of the market, Jupiter home sales have never been better. In fact, they have never even been close. Pending home sales of homes with list prices above the $1 million dollar threshold in the Northern Palm Beaches just hit an all time record high. What’s crazy is that have soared beyond the old record by over 23%. Did you hear what I just said. Pending home sales of $1M+ homes in the Jupiter area are 23% higher than we have ever seen before in history. They are up an amazing 40% in one month and currently sit 100% above last year’s numbers. And last year we set an all time record high. I can’t wait for this economy to recover. Thankfully according to the President of the Federal Bank of San Francisco we may only have to wait for 4 to 5 years.

To make things even crazier, interest rates are plummeting and sit at the lowest levels in history. With our national debt exploding, the odds are high they will go even lower. The number of homes on the market is also near an all time record. An all time record low. This afternoon, the inventory of properties for sale in the Northern Palm Beaches is within 7 units of the worst numbers we have seen in well over a decade. We just experienced our third straight monthly drop and over the past 30 days they have dropped over 10%. Compared to a year ago numbers, inventory is down almost 15%.

Distressed sales are almost non-existent. In fact, on our Multiple Listing Service the number of homes that are either short sales, or bank owned foreclosures, are at the lowest levels we have seen since the great real estate bubble of 2005/2006. This afternoon, there is not a single distressed condo on the market. Yes sir, there is a serious disconnect to an economy where many project that 40% of the jobs lost during this pandemic are not coming back. In an America where over 60% of the country has less than $400 in their savings account. Where we are most likely going to see foreclosures and bankruptcies at levels this country has never seen. And the President of Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco says the best case is an economic recovery 4 to 5 years down the road.

With sales through the roof, with inventory at historic lows, home prices should be soaring. They aren’t. In the Jupiter area, median condo prices dipped below $250,000 as of June 15th for the 1st time in 6 months and have pulled even lower since then. Median single family home prices during June pulled back to the lowest prices we have seen since March.

It’s hard to say exactly what is going on, but my bet is with the huge gain coming our way in $1M+ closings we should see median prices hit new highs. But it’s hard to see any reason for this growth at the very top end of the market to continue over the long term. No doubt people with money are flocking to Florida, in large part to the Trump administrations tax cuts, and especially the inability to any longer deduct state income taxes from their federal tax liability. What might happen if Joe Biden is actually elected in November. Ponder that for a minute, or two.

Right now, things have never been better in the Jupiter area real estate market, especially at the top end but there are lots of questions. There is this virus, there is hatred on our streets and there is a disconnect. Keep informed, pay attention and do not be afraid to ask questions and seek answers. Paradise Sharks has been doing nothing but real estate for many decades. We kicked the middle man out of the real estate transaction, so we can keep our quality high and our prices the lowest in the industry. If we can ever answer any of your questions please feel free to reach out to us at tom@paradisesharks.com or 561.308.0175.

We won’t bite, but we will do our best to provide you a real estate experience that will put a big smile to your face and leave more of your money in your bank account.

Fins up…..

#jupiterhomesales

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