As of today, home inventory levels in Jupiter and the surrounding towns that make up the Northern Palm Beaches, are down about 1.5% from where we stood 30 days ago. Down for the 4th straight month to the lowest levels we have seen since August of 2013. On the bright side for buyers is the fact that over the past 2 weeks we have seen a slight uptick in this very important metric. Last year, from June 1st through August 1st, we saw inventory levels decline by about 8% so we certainly do not need a similar reduction this year.
Those who keep up with our weekly updates know we have seen significant increases in the median prices of both condominiums and single family homes in the Jupiter area. These gains have been driven by very strong pending home sales that topped out on April 1st and we finally see a reversal in that trend as of June 1st. Over the past 30 days we have the very first fall in pending home sales since January 1st. The reduction was not huge at 7% but a reversal of what had been a very strong trend.
Some of this reversal is seasonal and there is no doubt the real estate market will cool over the summer months. Last year, we saw one of our largest monthly gains in median single family home prices in the month between June 1st and July 1st. While pending home sales fell over the past 30 days we are still a very strong 17.5% higher than the 12 month moving average and 6.8% higher than year ago numbers. It is indeed going to be a very interesting summer here in paradise.
We keep hearing about interest rates moving higher but with our national debt that is fairly unlikely, at least any significant increase. I have seen Miami show up in two different articles this week as one of the most “overvalued” markets in the country. One pointed to a very large discrepancy between median prices and household income levels which is true, but the median income wage earner isn’t driving this market. Consumer confidence both in Florida and nationwide fell sharply as on May 29th. There are signs all is not well and many, especially older Americans, remain pessimistic about the future of the US economy. But ask those trying to find a home today in this market and you will find it is not an easy task.
So home inventory levels appear to finally be leveling off as do pending home sales. We are still at least a week and a half from our next analysis of median home prices in Jupiter but watch for them to be up strongly once again. It indeed is going to be an interesting summer here in paradise.
Paradise Sharks Real Estate