Two weeks ago it started to look like the great inventory slide of 2015 had stabilized. It was the first time in 5 months that we did not see a further decline in homes available for sale. Levels didn’t increase, they stayed flat, but there was hope. Today’s number takes that hope away as over the past 15 days Jupiter area home inventory has dropped 3.3%. Over the past month we have dropped 5%. We are a full 12% below the 12 month moving average. We are down 16.5% from where we were last year at this time. Heck, we are at the lowest levels we have seen since we started keeping these numbers and that was a long, long time ago. Inventory levels are poor.
Inventory is part of the pricing equation and represents supply. As supply drops and demand stays constant we should see prices climb if we ignore the “intangibles”. The thing is, we are in the summer months and we know that demand is most likely going to weaken. Perhaps significantly. Sales might hold up for the next month or so as they are delayed from when contracts were written. That is why we watch pending home sales. They tell us what sales are going to be before they happen. They are a sign and here at Paradise Sharks we like signs. Sign help us know what is going to happen. It helps us educate our clients so they make informed decisions.
So what has happened to demand, or pending home sales in the northern Palm Beaches, since our last report. They have dropped as expected. Down about 6.5% over the past 15 days. Down 8% from just a month ago. But sales had been very strong during the season so we are down from very strong numbers. On the good news side of this equation pending home sales are 4% higher than one year ago. We are 8.2% higher than our moving 12 month average. Sales are still very good, especially when you look at inventory levels.
We keep saying it is going to be an interesting summer. Will sales drop low enough to cause prices to stabilize or fall? Will dropping inventory force buyers to pay more moving prices even closer to all time record highs? Stay tuned as it’s going to be an interesting summer. If you need help sorting out your real estate problems please reach out to Paradise Sharks at firstname.lastname@example.org. We are here to help.